Ambassador Volker on International Affairs

17:30:08:09 >>> Coming up next on Arizona
17:30:09:09 Horizon — a look at 17:30:11:27 international affairs with
17:30:12:24 former U.S. ambassador to NATO, 17:30:15:06 Kurt Volker. 17:30:16:21 That's next on Arizona Horizon. 17:30:21:15 >>> Arizona Horizon is made
17:30:22:09 possible by contributions from 17:30:23:24 the friends of Eight, members
of 17:30:25:03 your Arizona PBS station. 17:30:27:03 Thank you. 17:30:28:24 >>> Good evening, and welcome
to 17:30:30:24 Arizona Horizon. 17:30:31:09 I'm Ted Simons. 17:30:32:09 A judge has denied a request by
17:30:34:09 congressional candidate Martha 17:30:35:09 McSally to block the counting
of 17:30:38:18 some provisional votes in
17:30:40:03 McSalley's race against 17:30:41:06 incumbent Ron Barber. 17:30:43:27 McSalley's attorneys wanted
17:30:45:06 ballots not signed by poll 17:30:46:15 workers to be set aside, but the
17:30:48:03 judge ruled there was no 17:30:48:27 irreparable harm in continuing
17:30:50:15 to count the ballots. 17:30:52:06 McSalley's lead over Barber is
17:30:54:09 at 341 votes, a vote 17:30:57:03 differential of 200 fewer votes
17:30:58:21 would trigger an automatic 17:31:00:15 recount. 17:31:01:09 >>> Kurt Volker, the former U.S.
17:31:11:12 ambassador to NATO joins us here 17:31:13:03 on Arizona Horizon for an update
17:31:14:15 on international affairs. 17:31:16:00 Ambassador Volker is also now
an 17:31:19:03 executive director for ASU's
17:31:20:18 McCain institute for 17:31:21:18 international leadership. 17:31:23:24 Good to have you back. 17:31:25:21 >> Nice to be here. 17:31:26:15 >> Let's start with something
17:31:27:06 that Mikel Gorbachev was saying 17:31:32:00 the world is on the brink of a
17:31:33:12 new cold war. 17:31:36:09 What do you think? 17:31:37:12 >> I think that there is worry
17:31:38:06 embedded in this. 17:31:39:00 I don't think some of the
17:31:39:18 reasons given, that we've been 17:31:44:00 doing things to disadvantage
17:31:45:15 Russia, I'm not sure that's 17:31:47:18 true, that's part of the Russian
17:31:51:06 initiative. 17:31:51:24 You have seen the take over of
17:31:52:24 the Ukraine, they invaded 17:31:54:15 Georgia six years ago and did
17:31:55:15 the runs around NATO territory a
17:31:58:12 week ago and, and they moved 17:31:59:21 more armor into Ukraine so we
17:32:01:24 see Russia behaving in ways that 17:32:03:24 they are really, really
17:32:05:15 positioning themselves for a 17:32:06:24 conflict. 17:32:07:18 >> So and, and again, he,
17:32:09:03 basically, blamed the west as 17:32:10:06 you said, for not fulfilling
17:32:12:15 promises made back in 1989. 17:32:15:12 What's he talking about? 17:32:16:09 I know what he's talking about,
17:32:17:12 and I'll tell you, I think he's 17:32:18:24 wrong here, as well, too. 17:32:20:21 In 1989, 1990, when the Berlin
17:32:23:03 wall came down, Germany was 17:32:25:03 unified, and there were talks,
17:32:26:18 two plus four talks about the 17:32:28:12 unification of Germany, the U.S.
17:32:29:24 and Soviet union, and then the, 17:32:31:15 the, the other powers that were
17:32:34:00 part of the Germany, U.K. and 17:32:36:00 France and the two Germanys, and
17:32:37:15 there we said we're not going to
17:32:38:18 put the military infrastructure 17:32:39:27 of NATO into the territory of
17:32:41:12 the former east Germany. 17:32:42:18 Of well, that did not mean
17:32:43:24 anything other than, the 17:32:45:00 territory of former east
17:32:46:27 Germany, we upheld that, and all 17:32:48:18 of Germany has joined NATO, but
17:32:50:09 since, a lot has changed and the 17:32:52:21 other members come from central
17:32:54:00 and eastern Europe closer to 17:32:55:03 Russia. 17:32:56:03 Then we had issues where the
17:32:58:09 Russians said well, you promise 17:33:00:12 never to have permanent
17:33:01:12 stationing in those territories 17:33:02:21 and you look at that and say,
17:33:04:00 what did we say? 17:33:05:09 And it was permanent stationing
17:33:06:24 of new combat forces, 17:33:08:24 significant numbers, in those
17:33:10:09 territories, and we're far below 17:33:12:18 any of the levels of military
17:33:14:00 equipment that we had during the 17:33:14:27 cold war. 17:33:15:24 And the other side of this, you
17:33:17:18 have to look at the Russian 17:33:18:24 side, it's one thing to blame
17:33:20:00 the west but let's look inside 17:33:22:18 Russia. 17:33:23:00 You have seen putedden
17:33:23:18 reestablish an authoritative 17:33:25:09 Government and reinvested in the
17:33:26:18 military, invaded neighboring 17:33:28:00 countries like Ukraine and
17:33:31:03 consolidated control over energy 17:33:32:15 and tried to use that as a tool
17:33:33:21 against his neighbors. 17:33:35:18 What we are seeing is that, is
17:33:36:18 that the, the west, the United 17:33:37:27 States, Europe, have had what
we 17:33:39:18 would consider a modern view of
17:33:41:15 development in Europe. 17:33:42:12 People get to decide their own
17:33:43:18 fate, and they get to be, to be 17:33:45:18 democracy and is market
17:33:46:12 economies. 17:33:47:18 Russia's view is that we're a
17:33:48:27 great power, and we have a 17:33:50:03 severe influence, and we get to
17:33:51:27 decide over our neighboring 17:33:53:18 territories. 17:33:54:06 >> So when Gorbachev says the
17:33:56:06 U.S. and the west exploited 17:33:58:00 Russia's weakness, after 1989,
17:34:01:27 what's he getting at there? 17:34:03:21 >> He's saying that the Soviet
17:34:04:24 union collapsed, and then we 17:34:06:21 went, where there had been a
17:34:08:15 Warsaw pact or where there had 17:34:10:00 been a so it — a Soviet union
17:34:13:06 and welcomed those countries 17:34:14:06 like the Baltic states, for
17:34:15:18 example, and saying that's not 17:34:16:27 really fair. 17:34:17:21 We were weak and these are our
17:34:20:09 territories and you encroached 17:34:22:12 on us, but it was never fair
17:34:23:27 from 1917. 17:34:24:24 These were independent people
17:34:25:24 that invaded, occupied, and 17:34:27:12 brought into the Soviet union,
17:34:28:21 the moment that they had the 17:34:30:03 chance to be free, they chose
17:34:32:00 that freedom. 17:34:32:24 >> So, he also mentioned the
17:34:35:00 bombing runs, the former 17:34:37:21 Yugoslavia, and mentions Iraq
17:34:39:03 and Libya and Syria, and 17:34:40:18 mentions the U.S. and the west
17:34:41:27 attempting to, to dominate, a 17:34:44:18 domination of the world, this
17:34:46:12 sounds, as you mentioned 17:34:48:00 earlier, like a Russian
17:34:48:27 narrative. 17:34:49:18 >> It's a Russian narrative
17:34:51:06 aimed at blaming the United 17:34:52:03 States for the problems that we
17:34:53:18 see. 17:34:54:00 And what did we do in the last
17:34:56:00 five years? 17:34:56:21 We withdrew from Iraq, and we
17:34:58:24 are withdrawing from 17:34:59:21 Afghanistan, and what do we see? 17:35:01:21 Chaos in Iraq and Syria right
17:35:03:06 now, we're worried about what 17:35:04:18 will happen in Afghanistan, most
17:35:06:18 of the rest of the world, leave 17:35:08:27 out Russia, is saying we don't
17:35:10:06 see enough U.S. leadership. 17:35:11:27 >> He made these statements when
17:35:13:00 he was in Germany, and he may 17:35:15:12 still be in Germany, and
17:35:16:15 anywhere he lives but he made 17:35:18:12 the statements in Germany, and
I 17:35:19:15 am assuming that it was for a
17:35:20:24 European audience? 17:35:21:27 He's saying that because of this
17:35:24:12 exploitation of Russian 17:35:25:18 weakness, Etc., that Europe is
17:35:28:00 now suffering the most, and 17:35:29:21 Europe is in danger of becoming
17:35:32:06 irrelevant. 17:35:32:24 >> Yeah, and I think that one
of 17:35:33:21 the things that you see here,
17:35:35:03 with Gorbachev, you certainly 17:35:36:21 see it with Putin, but I think
17:35:38:15 that it fits the pattern now, 17:35:40:03 too. 17:35:40:21 When Russians go to, to western
17:35:42:18 Europe or even speak publicly 17:35:44:06 from Moscow, they are not trying
17:35:45:21 to tell the truth. 17:35:46:21 They are trying to influence,
17:35:48:27 and I think what they are trying 17:35:50:06 to get at is to influence Europe
17:35:52:06 it blame the United States for 17:35:53:18 the problems that they see and,
17:35:54:27 and not take a tough line on 17:35:56:21 Russia. 17:35:57:15 They are trying to get European
17:35:58:27 publics to feel that, that if we
17:36:01:03 don't do more to accommodate 17:36:02:21 Russia, things will get worse. 17:36:04:15 That, obviously, serves Russia's
17:36:06:03 interests. 17:36:06:21 >> Is that, is that — is there
17:36:07:21 some validity to those points? 17:36:10:00 >> I don't think that there is
17:36:10:15 in the analysis, even though it 17:36:11:21 may be genuinely felt. 17:36:13:27 The Russians may feel aggrieved,
17:36:16:03 that they were a super power, 17:36:17:09 and that status went away, but
17:36:18:27 that was all based on the 17:36:20:27 subjugation of neighboring
17:36:23:12 people that were not respectful 17:36:24:21 of democracy and human rights
17:36:26:21 and freedom. 17:36:27:06 We're never going back to that. 17:36:28:12 Those people in those countries
17:36:29:12 don't want to. 17:36:31:00 I think Russia would do better
17:36:32:06 to worry about its own people 17:36:33:09 and to join that modern
17:36:35:03 developed world. 17:36:35:21 >> Last question on this. 17:36:37:15 You know, ok, maybe not really
17:36:39:12 on the brink of a new cold war. 17:36:41:15 But, where does Europe stand in
17:36:44:15 world affairs right now? 17:36:46:06 Is this an, an old, dying beast,
17:36:48:24 or what's going on over there? 17:36:50:15 >> There is, there is things to
17:36:51:21 worry about, first off is the 17:36:53:03 demographics of Europe, it's
17:36:54:15 going down, or stay, but not 17:36:56:15 growing. 17:36:56:27 So, you are going to have a
17:36:57:27 fixed population, while the rest 17:36:59:12 of the world is booming. 17:37:01:09 Related to that, the economy is
17:37:03:00 not growing great in Europe, 17:37:04:06 it's kind of flat, as well. 17:37:05:15 And on top of that, they
17:37:07:24 leveraged their future by going 17:37:09:00 into debt, and in order to pay
17:37:10:15 for, for social welfare programs 17:37:12:06 and pensions, so a lot of these
17:37:14:06 countries are saddled with heavy 17:37:16:15 burdens, finding it difficult
to 17:37:18:00 devote any kind of resources to,
17:37:19:21 to national power. 17:37:21:06 Defense budgets, Homeland
17:37:21:24 Security budgets, they are 17:37:23:12 trying to cover their domestic
17:37:25:03 services and stay a float. 17:37:26:21 >> And that means the U.S. is
17:37:27:27 going to have to take on that 17:37:30:06 responsibility, even more so? 17:37:32:00 >> Well, let's put it this way,
17:37:33:27 the U.S. is still the biggest 17:37:35:21 economy in the world, and the
17:37:36:15 biggest military power in the 17:37:38:06 world, the most influential,
17:37:39:27 political player, and we can be 17:37:41:06 a leader and we can low ball
17:37:43:06 other countries, Europe is the 17:37:44:12 next biggest economy in the
17:37:45:21 world, when you put it all 17:37:46:18 together. 17:37:48:00 And they have tremendous
17:37:49:03 capacity, even though it is 17:37:50:15 weaker and, and less investment
17:37:52:24 than in the past. 17:37:53:15 If you think about, about where
17:37:55:18 are you going to do a military 17:37:56:24 operation and who will come with
17:37:57:21 you and who has the Texas Tech 17:37:59:06 equipment and most of it is out
17:38:02:06 of Europe. 17:38:03:18 If we lead we can get help. 17:38:04:27 >> So, let's get to the Ukraine
17:38:06:15 now, what is the status of the 17:38:08:03 conflict there? 17:38:09:00 They are moving folks and tanks
17:38:12:00 around. 17:38:12:12 >> We had there cease-fire
17:38:13:12 agreement about a month ago, and 17:38:16:03 that was the basis for the sides
17:38:18:12 to pull back a bit, and during 17:38:19:27 that time of pullback, you had
17:38:21:15 continued low level fighting, 17:38:22:27 and, and some Ukrainian forces
17:38:25:03 were killed and some rebels were 17:38:26:09 being killed, and, and then, you
17:38:28:00 had an election where the rebel 17:38:31:00 areas held their own election,
17:38:32:18 in order to say, we're going to 17:38:34:00 elect a new leadership and we're
17:38:35:06 going to, to exercise rights as 17:38:36:15 an independent state. 17:38:38:12 That flies in the face of the
17:38:40:09 agreement reached with Ukraine 17:38:41:15 where they are supposed to
17:38:42:09 remain part of the Ukraine, and 17:38:44:00 Ukraine said all Beth — bets
17:38:47:15 are off, and that's what they 17:38:48:12 were waiting to hear, they have
17:38:49:12 been moving in, all the military 17:38:50:21 equipment and armor getting
17:38:52:00 ready for one more offensive 17:38:53:21 before the winter hits. 17:38:54:27 >> And how binding could those
17:38:56:15 separatist elections be? 17:38:58:06 >> Well, it depends, you know,
17:38:59:21 history is written by the 17:39:00:27 winners so, if they managed to
17:39:03:15 maintain separate territory, and 17:39:05:18 have that recognized by Russia's
17:39:08:24 independence or, incorporated, 17:39:10:00 no one is able to change those
17:39:11:00 fax on the ground. 17:39:12:18 Eventually, that will be the
17:39:13:18 facts. 17:39:14:03 >> Yeah, and the exact of
17:39:15:27 sanctions on Moscow. 17:39:17:00 What's going on? 17:39:18:03 >> It's had a lot of impacts,
17:39:19:12 and it is, it is — it caused 17:39:21:09 the capital flight out of
17:39:22:09 Russia, and put a lot of 17:39:23:06 pressure on the rebels, combined
17:39:26:09 with the, the fallen energy 17:39:28:03 prices, particularly of oil, and
17:39:29:27 that's really hurt the Russian 17:39:30:24 economy and the budget. 17:39:32:24 But, hasn't changed Russian
17:39:34:21 decision-making. 17:39:36:00 They think that, that this is
a 17:39:37:00 blip, and we can ride this out. 17:39:38:15 And acquiring territories
17:39:40:18 permanent, the economic 17:39:41:27 sanctions will come and go. 17:39:43:03 >> I was going to ask you, how
17:39:44:00 much does Russia really fear 17:39:46:18 these western sanctions? 17:39:48:09 >> They believe that they can
17:39:49:03 call our bluff, that the west 17:39:51:00 will not have the stomach to
17:39:52:15 continue with the sanctions. 17:39:54:15 We have seen the estimates of
17:39:56:24 growth in Europe revised 17:39:58:12 downward because of the
17:39:59:03 sanctions, that's going to put 17:40:00:06 pressure on the western
17:40:01:12 politicians to do something. 17:40:03:15 >> And I have seen the reports
17:40:05:06 where, where some, some 17:40:06:18 observers are saying that the
17:40:07:24 relations with Moscow and 17:40:09:03 between Moscow and the west,
17:40:10:15 lowest it has been since 1989. 17:40:13:00 >> Yeah, I think no, doubt, no
17:40:14:12 doubt about it. 17:40:15:06 But, that's largely again,
17:40:16:18 because of the change in Russia 17:40:17:27 that we have seen over the last
17:40:19:15 12 to 13 years under Vladimir 17:40:21:03 Putin. 17:40:21:27 It's become an authoritarian
17:40:24:06 system, centralized control, and 17:40:25:21 they have decided to take an
17:40:27:15 imperialist narrative that 17:40:29:15 Russia has a right to have all
17:40:30:21 speakers inside Russia, and 17:40:33:09 similar logic to what we heard
17:40:34:12 in World War II. 17:40:36:09 You have neighboring territories
17:40:38:00 that were part of the former 17:40:39:24 Soviet union, Russia feels it
17:40:41:06 has a right of say so over those 17:40:43:00 countries. 17:40:43:12 And that kind of assertion of,
17:40:45:09 of Russian, Russian imperial 17:40:47:24 goals, frankly, against the rest
17:40:49:21 of the world is what has brought 17:40:51:00 us into, into, into, closer,
17:40:52:24 closer to the approximation of a
17:40:54:09 conflict. 17:40:54:24 >> And with that idea being,
17:40:56:06 being close to a conflict, or an
17:40:59:00 approximation, where does NATO 17:41:01:06 stand? 17:41:01:24 >> NATO is an organization that,
17:41:03:03 that can only make the decisions 17:41:04:18 by consensus of all of the
17:41:06:15 members. 17:41:06:27 You have 28 members of NATO, and
17:41:08:21 everybody has to agree. 17:41:11:03 We have a handful of members,
17:41:12:12 including Germany and Italy and 17:41:14:03 Belgium and Greece, and they
17:41:15:06 want no part of, of rising to a
17:41:17:15 conflict with Russia. 17:41:18:15 They say what Russia is doing,
17:41:19:27 and the last thing that we want 17:41:21:09 to do is to respond to that by
17:41:22:24 pushing back militarily in any 17:41:24:21 way, and we would rather go to
17:41:25:24 the E.U. and put in sanctions 17:41:27:18 and see what happens, but, we're
17:41:29:00 not going to challenge this. 17:41:30:24 As a result, NATO has not much
17:41:32:09 to say. 17:41:32:18 >> And not much to say which
17:41:34:03 cuts into their power? 17:41:35:15 >> Yeah, well, the NATO power
17:41:37:06 gets back to investment. 17:41:39:03 The U.S. now provides 75% of the
17:41:42:03 money that NATO budgets are 17:41:45:03 comprised of. 17:41:48:03 That's a chunk that depends on
17:41:49:18 the U.S. 17:41:50:09 Nonetheless, if we wanted to do
17:41:51:21 something, we would want others 17:41:53:09 with us, and we would not want
17:41:54:15 to act alone, and the Europeans 17:41:56:00 have the capability. 17:41:57:09 >> Last question, how does that
17:41:58:09 play out? 17:41:58:24 Will we see two countries there? 17:42:01:09 >> It depends really on the
17:42:02:15 response. 17:42:02:24 And I think that Russia's
17:42:04:00 position is clear, and Russia is
17:42:05:09 going to attack again, and it 17:42:06:24 will try to connect with the
17:42:08:03 territories in eastern Ukraine, 17:42:10:00 to Crimea, and if it has a land
17:42:14:03 bridge to Crimea, it will absorb 17:42:15:24 that territory, and it will
17:42:17:06 think about southern Ukraine, 17:42:18:12 and there is a piece there that
17:42:20:03 goes from Crimea west to Moldova 17:42:23:00 and, and an enclave that Russia
17:42:26:00 controls. 17:42:26:12 If you can take the Black Sea
17:42:29:00 coast of Ukraine as well as the 17:42:30:18 other, you will have, have a,
a 17:42:32:18 Russian controlled eastern and
17:42:33:27 southern Ukraine and, and a rump 17:42:36:06 land locked Ukraine that looks
17:42:37:21 westward, but is not the Ukraine 17:42:39:06 that we know today. 17:42:40:24 >> Wow, all right, interesting. 17:42:41:27 And let's get to the mideast
17:42:42:27 now. 17:42:43:09 We have got more troops heading
17:42:44:12 to, to Iraq. 17:42:46:09 What are your thoughts? 17:42:47:06 >> Well, I think that, that we
17:42:48:09 need to have a clear sense of 17:42:50:00 how we're going to defeat Isis. 17:42:51:21 I think that is necessary to put
17:42:54:15 in more troops, and clearly they 17:42:55:27 are continuing to gain
17:42:57:00 airstrikes alone are not doing 17:42:59:15 everything we had hoped. 17:43:00:15 The Iraqi security forces are
17:43:02:18 going to benefit from the 17:43:03:18 training and the seat that go
17:43:05:03 these troops will provide, but 17:43:07:00 we need to go all the way to the
17:43:08:09 end of the equation to start and 17:43:10:06 say, what's it going to take to
17:43:11:27 get rid of Isis? 17:43:14:00 Overall? 17:43:14:21 How do we mobilize that from our
17:43:17:09 cells or an international 17:43:18:12 community and work backwards? 17:43:19:24 Because what I worry about is
17:43:21:03 we're doing the incremental 17:43:22:09 pieces, but it's not the
17:43:23:18 strategic decision to eliminate 17:43:25:09 Isis. 17:43:25:24 >> What is it going to take to
17:43:27:12 eliminate Isis, especially when 17:43:28:27 you have got tribal folks over
17:43:30:21 there that seem like they are 17:43:32:03 not all that upset. 17:43:34:09 At least they are — at least
17:43:35:15 with Isis, it's the devil that 17:43:37:00 they know supposed everything
17:43:38:06 else, and a lot of cases in the 17:43:40:03 sunni cases in Iraq, they are
17:43:42:00 thinking that, that Isis is 17:43:43:03 maybe a better alternative than
17:43:44:18 what they say as a shia 17:43:48:06 dominated Government, and in
17:43:49:06 Syria you have assad who killed 17:43:51:15 200,000 of his own people, and
17:43:53:00 who will defend us and fight 17:43:54:03 back? 17:43:54:15 Well, it's the meanest, toughest
17:43:56:24 fighting force is the one who is
17:43:58:09 going to do it. 17:43:59:09 And that's what I mean by
17:44:00:09 getting a strategy around this. 17:44:01:15 How do we unwind these
17:44:03:00 perceptions? 17:44:04:00 So that people don't look at,
at 17:44:06:15 increased violence, increased
17:44:08:03 fighting, with the most extreme 17:44:10:00 groups, as the best way to
17:44:11:24 protect themselves. 17:44:13:03 Can't we find other ways of
17:44:14:24 regional powers and, and others 17:44:16:12 joining the conflict, and a
17:44:17:21 combination of airstrikes and 17:44:18:21 those who can put boots on the
17:44:20:09 ground, and to help, help 17:44:22:12 establish control? 17:44:23:27 Some order? 17:44:24:24 And then, and then strip away
17:44:26:12 the support of the extremist 17:44:29:09 groups, in a normal situation
17:44:30:15 they are, by no means the groups 17:44:32:03 that people want governing them. 17:44:33:21 >> We have seen reports that
17:44:34:15 there were setbacks for Isis in 17:44:35:27 Iraq and that there was a bit
of 17:44:37:09 a stalemate in Syria and is that
17:44:40:00 accurate or are you saying not 17:44:41:12 necessarily? 17:44:42:06 >> I don't think it's accurate
17:44:43:03 because if you look at, at the 17:44:45:06 flow of oil, they have been able
17:44:47:00 to do this micro-refinery, and 17:44:49:12 sell, sell product on the
17:44:50:21 market, a million dollars a day, 17:44:52:06 and they have got known coming
17:44:53:18 in and arms, and they have 17:44:54:15 captured arms, some of ours, and
17:44:56:15 they have territory, and they 17:44:57:15 have got a mystique that
17:44:59:27 fighters are flowing to them 17:45:00:27 because they are, they are
17:45:02:00 inspired by building this. 17:45:04:15 I don't think that we have
17:45:05:09 broken that. 17:45:06:00 >> Interesting, and as far as
17:45:06:21 the mercenaries are concerned, I
17:45:08:00 have read again, they are coming 17:45:09:15 from all over. 17:45:10:09 >> They are. 17:45:10:18 >> They are. 17:45:11:00 >> And if they are motivated by
17:45:14:00 this idea of the Islamic 17:45:17:12 situation governed under the
17:45:18:15 laws of islam and taking on 17:45:20:12 those, those who they feel have,
17:45:22:00 have, have degraded islam over 17:45:23:24 time, the west, Christians,
17:45:25:15 whoever it may be, they want to 17:45:28:00 join that fight. 17:45:28:21 >> And so, I can understand
17:45:30:09 conflict and everyone gets 17:45:31:12 excited about that and everyone
17:45:32:15 wants to be a soldier and win or
17:45:34:00 do all of this, but, governing 17:45:36:24 is a different ball game. 17:45:38:00 Can these folks Governor? 17:45:40:06 >> Well, thus far, let's take
a 17:45:43:09 different example first. 17:45:44:06 Look at Hamas in the gaza strip. 17:45:47:24 They were well-known for
17:45:49:00 organizing charities, for 17:45:50:00 providing hospitals and
17:45:51:06 providing education, and so, 17:45:52:21 there is nothing to say that a
17:45:54:00 radical group cannot also 17:45:55:06 provide some means of
17:45:56:06 governance. 17:45:56:24 Isis hasn't demonstrated that,
17:45:58:27 but, I would not bank, I would 17:46:00:15 not base my policy on banking
17:46:03:06 that they are going to fail. 17:46:04:09 >> Interesting. 17:46:05:15 As far as the bombing campaign,
17:46:07:15 has that had much of an impact? 17:46:09:12 We heard one of the leaders may
17:46:10:06 have been injured or killed. A
17:46:15:12 — the Obama campaign, are they 17:46:16:21 doing thing? 17:46:17:15 >> The Isis fighters have been
17:46:18:21 good at adopting to it, they 17:46:20:27 hide in cities and populated
17:46:22:12 areas and try to keep their 17:46:23:21 equipment out of visibility. 17:46:25:15 They cover the occasional
17:46:26:21 meeting and they bring the 17:46:27:21 senior leaders together, and we
17:46:29:06 had some intel and we go after 17:46:30:18 that. 17:46:31:18 Literally, it's hit or miss. 17:46:33:15 If you get them, you do, but if
17:46:35:09 not, they are being very careful 17:46:36:24 about how they put themselves
in 17:46:38:12 front of targets. 17:46:39:15 >> Will there ever be a
17:46:40:21 situation in which the U.S. 17:46:41:15 finds itself increasingly siding
17:46:43:24 with assad, with the regime in 17:46:46:15 Syria? 17:46:47:09 >> It's interesting because
17:46:47:27 that's where the breakdown 17:46:49:06 between the U.S. and you know
it 17:46:51:06 lies, is that Turkey thinks
17:46:52:06 that, well, you cannot go after 17:46:53:21 Isis alone. 17:46:54:18 You also have to go after Assad
17:46:57:27 and support a different Syria. 17:46:59:18 Our position has been well, we
17:47:01:03 don't want to take on the Assad 17:47:02:21 regime but we'll go after Isis,
17:47:04:27 and Turkey says, we're not sure 17:47:06:27 that, that we want to help as
17:47:08:12 much as you might like. 17:47:10:21 Simply, we have a situation
17:47:13:03 where, with Iran, which we may 17:47:15:00 be aligning ourselves a bit with
17:47:17:00 Iran and going after Isis in 17:47:18:21 Iraq, and that may be a
17:47:20:21 long-term problem because, 17:47:22:00 because the, the people in
17:47:23:12 northern Iraq, the sunnis 17:47:26:24 don't want to be dominated by
17:47:28:09 the shia Government. 17:47:31:09 So ifings this are being
17:47:32:06 defined, and the U.S. is trying 17:47:33:15 to, to, to weigh in here or
17:47:35:03 there, I think we may lose out a
17:47:38:00 bit, we have got to define a 17:47:39:03 bigger vision of an inclusive
17:47:40:21 mideast, and one that's based 17:47:42:06 more on institutions and
17:47:44:06 principles, and very difficult 17:47:46:06 to say, because of all the
17:47:47:18 things that have happened 17:47:48:15 recently and all the extremism
17:47:50:00 that's out there. 17:47:51:21 If we go, go just for defeating
17:47:53:21 Isis, and ignoring the other 17:47:56:06 pieces, I think that we're
17:47:57:09 really not going to have a 17:47:58:06 strategic effect. 17:47:59:18 >> One of the other pieces could
17:48:00:09 be the ethnic, Kurdish fighters, 17:48:02:09 which are doing a good job on
17:48:03:15 the ground. 17:48:04:00 >> Right. 17:48:04:06 >> What are they going to expect
17:48:06:27 it things turn and they wind up 17:48:09:03 on what can be a winning side? 17:48:11:12 >> Yeah, well, the Kurdish
17:48:13:00 leaders in northern Iraq, very 17:48:15:06 much want to be independent. 17:48:16:21 They want to have an independent
17:48:17:21 state. 17:48:18:03 And they have held off on this
17:48:19:15 for years to be, to be part of 17:48:21:15 Iraq because they don't want to
17:48:23:03 be a, a thorn in the side or a, 17:48:26:09 or targeted by Iran and Turkey,
17:48:28:00 who don't want an independent 17:48:30:24 Kurdish stand so they play this
17:48:33:00 game of being independent in 17:48:34:03 everything but name, and now
17:48:38:24 Kurds are hit elsewhere, and I 17:48:41:00 think it will raise the
17:48:42:21 expectations on the Kurdish 17:48:43:27 side, at the end of this, we're
17:48:45:15 be the responsible players, and 17:48:47:15 why should we not be a state? 17:48:49:09 >> They would expect something,
17:48:50:06 I think, out of this, especially 17:48:51:09 since they are doing as well as
17:48:52:12 they are against the Isis 17:48:53:12 fighters. 17:48:53:24 >> Right. 17:48:54:06 >> And all right, so, Iraq, Iran
17:48:58:21 and, and Syria and, and will we 17:49:03:03 see new borders relatively soon
17:49:07:18 over there with those countries? 17:49:09:06 >> I think that, that — here's
17:49:10:15 the drivers for that. 17:49:11:15 I think it's possible that you
17:49:12:09 will. 17:49:13:18 These were only drawn a hundred
17:49:15:12 years ago as part of the British 17:49:16:12 and French mandates and, and,
in 17:49:18:15 the mideast, and they were
17:49:20:27 designed to, to, to overlap 17:49:22:18 peoples. 17:49:23:12 They were not designed to, to
17:49:24:15 create neat lines. 17:49:25:21 They were designed to create a
17:49:26:24 bit of weakness where one group 17:49:28:09 would be smaller than a larger
17:49:30:15 population but being a, in a 17:49:32:27 dominant role but that's wildly
17:49:34:09 unstable, so you could see that, 17:49:35:15 but the drivers here are that,
17:49:36:27 that a, can you put Iraq back 17:49:39:15 together again? 17:49:40:12 You have got the Kurdish area,
17:49:42:03 the sunni and the Shia area, and 17:49:45:00 because of the inflammation of
17:49:46:21 tensions and no leading security 17:49:48:06 force, the Kurds want to be
17:49:50:09 independent, the sunnis don't 17:49:52:00 want to be governed by the Shia,
17:49:53:21 and the Shia wants to keep the 17:49:56:00 group to go but no one else
17:49:57:18 wants to be dominated by them. 17:49:59:00 So if Iraq cannot function, that
17:50:00:15 may be a de facto splitting up 17:50:02:09 of Iraq. 17:50:02:27 In Syria, you are going to see
17:50:04:03 that people are going to say 17:50:05:03 wait a second, there might be
17:50:07:00 areas here happy to have 17:50:08:27 assessad in control, and Shia
17:50:11:06 dominated areas, and 20% of the 17:50:13:21 population there. 17:50:14:09 And there are others that will
17:50:16:00 never be rec side to that. 17:50:17:12 So either you have continuous
17:50:18:24 warfare over the whole of Syria, 17:50:21:09 or you see some beginning
17:50:22:24 separation. 17:50:23:06 We don't know the answer to
17:50:24:06 either of these right now, but 17:50:25:12 those are the, the drivers that
17:50:26:27 put that on the table. 17:50:27:27 >> If someone were to come out
17:50:30:03 and say, listen, I have got an 17:50:32:00 idea, points to a map and says,
17:50:34:12 what do you think of this? 17:50:35:27 Can you go that direction? 17:50:37:09 It seems like a low grade fever
17:50:39:03 that never ends. 17:50:41:12 >> You can't do it by telling
17:50:42:18 people, this is the map and this 17:50:44:18 is what you will agree to
17:50:45:27 because everybody feels that 17:50:46:27 they are losing, which can get
17:50:48:00 to, to, is a sense of 17:50:49:15 settlement, the sense of
17:50:50:15 exhaustion that, that, that 17:50:52:09 these lines start to, to become
17:50:54:09 hardened in a way, and people 17:50:56:00 adjust to that reality. 17:50:58:06 That seems to be more like
17:51:00:00 what's happening at the moment. 17:51:00:27 With the caveat that we are
17:51:02:00 still engaged as are others in 17:51:03:27 trying to be sure that Isis
17:51:06:00 doesn't dominate the area there 17:51:07:24 because ice is, if it were to
17:51:09:15 consolidate power, in a real 17:51:11:12 territory for a period of time,
17:51:13:09 would be a revisionist power in 17:51:15:12 the region, going after other
17:51:16:24 groups, and going after the 17:51:18:09 west. 17:51:19:00 >> Quickly before we leave this,
17:51:20:06 are there sunni regimes, sunni 17:51:23:27 countries against Isis? 17:51:25:27 >> Yes. 17:51:26:15 >> Who — Saudi Arabia? 17:51:28:21 >> The most important one to
17:51:30:03 mention is the uae, and they 17:51:31:27 have been a vital partner of
17:51:33:12 ours as we have gone after Isis, 17:51:35:15 and also Saudi Arabia, you would
17:51:38:12 also say Turkey, in its own way 17:51:39:27 and Jordan certainly, so there
17:51:41:00 are countries there that are 17:51:42:18 equally concerned about, about
17:51:44:00 what Isis represents. 17:51:45:21 Again, it takes the U.S. to lead
17:51:47:18 and pull people together. 17:51:49:21 >> Sometimes you wonder when you
17:51:50:12 see the how the folks embrace, 17:51:54:06 and what they know as opposed
to 17:51:56:12 what they don't know. 17:51:57:12 A few minutes left, mid-term
17:51:58:15 elections here in the United 17:51:59:12 States. 17:52:00:12 What changes, as far as foreign
17:52:01:21 policy and international affairs 17:52:03:00 are concerned. 17:52:03:18 >> Yeah, I would have to say
17:52:04:15 that I don't think that there is
17:52:05:27 a lot that changes in terms of 17:52:07:06 the policy initiatives. 17:52:08:12 So, when we're talking, for
17:52:09:21 example, about the strategy on, 17:52:11:09 on Syria, what are we going to
17:52:12:21 do? 17:52:13:06 Only the White House can really
17:52:15:06 set the foreign policy 17:52:16:15 direction. 17:52:17:00 They make the decisions. 17:52:19:00 In our constitution, it's the
17:52:20:09 executive branch that leads on 17:52:21:24 foreign policy. 17:52:22:21 The Congress does. 17:52:23:21 The budget, the structures, it
17:52:25:21 can authorize or deauthorize, 17:52:27:00 but can't take the initiative
in 17:52:28:18 the same way. 17:52:29:18 In that respect I don't think
17:52:30:15 that there is much change. 17:52:31:27 It's still in the White House's
17:52:33:00 hands. 17:52:34:03 On the flip side, I think you
17:52:35:06 will see some issues on the 17:52:36:12 budget. 17:52:36:21 I think that there will be an
17:52:37:27 effort in both houses of 17:52:39:06 Congress now, for instance, to,
17:52:41:03 to stop some of the cuts in the 17:52:42:15 defense budget and try to
17:52:43:15 restore some of that. 17:52:45:06 I think you are going to see,
17:52:46:12 however, that for Republicans, 17:52:49:06 there is no mileage in sticking
17:52:50:21 your fleck out on foreign policy 17:52:52:00 ahead of the White House for
17:52:53:06 most of them. 17:52:54:03 They are going to want to be
17:52:56:24 supportive of the fight in Isis 17:52:59:15 but not in a position to lead
17:53:00:21 unless the White House paves the 17:53:02:12 way. 17:53:02:24 >> Is there a, a — is there
17:53:04:18 just a, a sense in the country 17:53:06:09 that, that Americans, I mean,
I 17:53:09:06 don't want to say isolation,
17:53:11:12 that's going too far but have 17:53:12:18 Americans — it seems like the
17:53:15:03 internet, something like the 17:53:16:00 internet where you can get news
17:53:17:00 as quickly as you can, folks, it
17:53:19:12 seems at times folks are 17:53:20:21 absolutely overwhelmed by all
of 17:53:22:06 this, let's let them fight it
17:53:23:27 out and bring our guys home. 17:53:26:03 Are you getting that sense? 17:53:27:06 >> Certainly. 17:53:27:18 And I would argue that may be
we 17:53:29:12 would have new technology for
17:53:30:27 discovering that, but I think 17:53:31:27 that's been the sense that there
17:53:33:06 is a reticence for deploying 17:53:38:06 force and is fighting foreign
17:53:39:27 wars. 17:53:40:06 No one really loves that. 17:53:41:09 But we come across in every
17:53:43:24 generation, is that at some 17:53:45:06 point, the things happening
17:53:46:21 abroad affect us. 17:53:48:06 And we get our, our, our act
17:53:50:18 together, and we get our dander 17:53:53:09 up and we say, no way. 17:53:54:18 We're not going to face another
17:53:56:00 terrorist attack here. 17:53:57:12 We'll take it to the terrorists,
17:53:59:21 that sort of thing. 17:54:00:18 And what the American people
17:54:01:21 look for is a strategy that 17:54:02:24 makes sense and will be
17:54:03:21 successful. 17:54:04:06 Right now, I think that we're
17:54:05:12 seeing the combination of 17:54:07:12 reticence and a feeling that
17:54:09:18 things we have done haven't been 17:54:10:18 successful. 17:54:11:03 >> Indeed, with the mid-term
17:54:12:27 elections be a lot deals with 17:54:13:24 the economy and a lot deals with
17:54:15:24 national affairs, and when 17:54:17:15 things turn around, it will turn
17:54:18:15 around, they always do, 17:54:19:24 economically, they go in cycles,
17:54:21:00 and when the boom happens again, 17:54:23:18 is that when — do you notice
17:54:25:06 people pay more attention to 17:54:26:09 foreign affairs? 17:54:27:09 Or is it just go, go, go, and
17:54:29:15 they don't pay attention? 17:54:31:00 >> I think it's more the latter. 17:54:33:03 They are more inclined to feel
17:54:34:06 good and more inclined to, to 17:54:38:21 ackest in the decisions. 17:54:40:24 Actually, it is less presents
on 17:54:43:09 people's minds, some of this is
17:54:44:15 weighing very heavily on 17:54:45:18 people's minds because you
17:54:47:24 started off the program. 17:54:48:21 We have crisis in Syria and in
17:54:50:15 Iraq and, and we have seen an 17:54:52:09 aggressive China, Russia and
17:54:53:27 Ukraine, and global economy, 17:54:57:00 Ebola, and people are worried
17:54:58:09 about this, and the gut reaction 17:55:01:12 is keep it away from us. 17:55:02:27 >> Great information and
17:55:03:15 conversations. 17:55:04:00 Always a pleasure to have you
17:55:04:27 here. 17:55:05:09 Thank you very much for joining
17:55:05:27 us. 17:55:06:06 >> Thank you. 17:55:06:24 >>> And on Tuesday, we'll have
a 17:55:08:09 special Veteran's day edition
of 17:55:10:00 Arizona Horizon, we'll get an
17:55:11:27 update of the V.A. health care 17:55:13:12 situation, and we'll hear from
a 17:55:14:21 group of Veterans who face
17:55:15:27 challenges because of their 17:55:18:15 gender and color of their skin,
17:55:20:00 that's at 5:30 and 10:00 on the 17:55:22:06 next Arizona Horizon. 17:55:24:12 That is it for now. 17:55:25:21 I'm Ted Simons, and thank you
17:55:26:15 very much for joining us. 17:55:27:15 You have a great evening. 17:55:28:24 >>> Arizona Horizon is made
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17:57:01:18 the sun is&searching for 17:57:03:18 Florida's treasures on the
17:57:04:24 million dollar sandbar, Miami 17:57:06:15 beach. 17:57:07:15 >> They were a dumpter dive. 17:57:10:00 >> At 99 cents I couldn't lose. 17:57:11:21 >> Oh, my goodness. 17:57:13:09 >> Really? 17:57:15:24 >> We're family. 17:57:17:09 >> Oh, my gosh. 17:57:18:18 >> Next time from Miami beach,
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17:58:12:21 that I always try to do, because 17:58:14:12 the light bulbs start turning
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17:58:45:09 >> Coming up on Arizona 17:58:48:15 Collectibles —
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