Democratic Candidates Polls Update | QT Politics (Kamala Harris Surges, Goodbye Eric Swalwell)


While some have been watching the Democratic
candidates for a while now, for many, the first democratic debate marked the beginning
of the contest. Just who won is, to some extent, a matter
of opinion, and I gave you mine in the two videos I released in the days following the
two-night event. But while I very much value my own opinion—I,
in fact, always agree with my opinions while I am giving them—facts and data tend to
be even more preferable. While polling is never 100% accurate, well-designed
polls offer more authoritative answers than analysis that is not driven by data. So, in this video, I’m going to look at some
of the most interesting polls regarding the democratic debate, and the general standings
of the various democratic candidates for the 2020 election. This should help to answer the questions:
who won the debate? And who’s winning the primary? (Get excited) Before we get into a more general picture
of how the democratic primary is looking, I want to take a look at an interesting set
of polls conducted by Morning Consult and Five Thrity Eight. One of my Patrons, Torge, actually pointed
me in the direction of this study pretty much immediately after its release. For this study, the same set of over 7,000
respondents were polled three times: before the debates, after night 1, and after night
2. Respondents were registered Democrats and
Democratic-leaning independents, and results were weighted to match the national population
of the same. The margin of error is 1 percentage point
for the first poll, and 2 percent for the second and third. In this chart, the study examines the relationship
between pre-debate favorability of candidates, and the perception of their debate performance. It is assumed that candidates that are already
well-liked will be identified as winners of their debates, and that trend is indicated
by this dotted line. But, there are exceptions. Some candidates did better than expected given
their baseline favorability, while others, not so much. Marianne Williamson, Andrew Yang, Beto O’Rourke,
and Joe Biden, performed especially poorly by this measure. Estimations of the performances of Bill de
Blasio, Julian Castro, Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren were especially high, given the level
of favorability they enjoyed prior to the debates. Favorability is also a significant factor
for these charts, which indicate the favorability of candidates before and after their performances
during the debate. Out of all twenty candidates, just two managed
to increase their favorability without increasing their unfavorability: Elizabeth Warren, and
Bernie Sanders. The two also now have the highest net favorability
in the field. All other candidates experienced an increase
in unfavorability, while just one experienced a decrease in favorability—Joe Biden. That’s a serious loss for the front-runner. But Biden is just one of the 11 candidates
who lost overall net favorability from the debate. He lost 5.6 points of net favorability. Tim Ryan’s net favorability dropped by 2.6. Delaney lost 3.8. 2.5 were lost by Swalwell. Hickenlooper lost 3.5.Williamson lost a full
9 points. Jay inlsee lost 1.9 points. Gillibrand went down by 1.4 points. Bennet dropped 1.4, as well. Yang, 1.7, but the losses of the last four
are within the margin of error. Far from that is the biggest loser of the
net approval changes, Beto O’Rourke, who lost an astounding 11.7 points. Warren gained 10.9 points of net favorability. Kamala Harris gained 9.2. Booker got 6.5. Klobuchar earned a 5 point bump. Gabbard, 3.3 points. Pete, 2.4. Within the margin of error, Bernie gained
1.1 points. Well within the margin of error, De Blasio
gained .4 points. The biggest winner in terms of net approval
was Julian Castro, who gained a full 15.4 points in net favorability. Morning Consult and Five Thirty Eight also
produced this dizzying chart, indicating who gained support, and from whom. Among the major candidates, you can see Elizabeth
Warren and Bernie Sanders had little change in support. Pete lost a bit. Joe Biden lost significant support, even after
just the first debate. The biggest change was the massive growth
of support for Kamala Harris, who seemed to pull supporters mainly from Elizabeth Warren
and Joe Biden. As interesting as this study is, the real
test—as far as polls go—of the first democratic debate, is the movement of the general national
polls for the democratic primary. And I find the Real Clear Politics averages
is a good measure of this, as RCP aggregates all national polls that they deem reliable. By comparing the RCP averages on the day of
the first night of the debates, June 26, to now, we see a broader perspective of how the
debates affected the race. Julian Castro, for example, who seemed like
one of the big winners in the debates, is still polling at just 1.3, and de Blasio,
despite his strong performance is still down at .4 percent. The most interesting change among minor candidates
is probably that of Tulsi Gabbard, who has managed to move from general obscurity, to
8th place, albeit, still polling at just 1.4 percent. Among the major candidates, trends are clearer. Elizabeth Warren, though a clear winner based
on the Morning Consult and 538 polls, has really just continued the gains she had already
been making, moving up from 12.8 points to 13.7. Beto O’Rourke dropped from 3.3 points to 2.6,
and Booker has changed little, dropping by just .2 points, to 2.1. Bernie’s high standing has been chipped away
a bit, dropping from 16.9 points to 15.3. Buttigieg had a relatively major downward
shift, losing a full two points, down now to just five points. But Biden’s losses are the clearest, having
dropped from 32 points to 27.1. The biggest gains were clearly made by Kamala
Harris, who more than doubled her support in the RCP poll averages, from 7.0 points,
to a full 15, nearly tying Bernie Sanders, who is just barely hanging on to his status
as the second-place candidate in the race so far. Not a bad result for Harris, who entered the
debates in a heated battle for fourth place with Mayor Pete. As it now stands, Joe Biden remains the front-runner,
but has been in perpetual free-fall since early May. Sanders, Harris and Warren are now in close
contention for second-place. Whether one of these three can take the lead
is still yet to be seen. But, personally, I do expect that one, if
not all three of these candidates will likely overcome Biden in the coming months. Aside from the rise of Kamala Harris, perhaps
the biggest change in the primary race since the debates has not been captured in the polls,
and that is of course, Eric Swalwell, who after failing to receive a torch passed from
anybody, has dropped out of
the race. It’s been widely reported that he is the first
to drop out: actually, that was Richard Ojeda. All the same, I’d like to end this video with
a loving t ribute to Eric Swalwell, and all that he contributed to this primary race.

Author Since: Mar 11, 2019

  1. Swalwell’s campaign was so young. Taken from us too quickly. May it forever Rest In Peace, In campaign heaven.

  2. From the FEC.gov site>>>> (Delaneys totals includes borrowed money? and Biden wasnt on the list?)

    SANDERS, BERNIE $20,817,691.10

    DELANEY, JOHN K.
    $18,289,849.08

    WARREN, ELIZABETH $16,482,752.41

    HARRIS, KAMALA D.
    $13,243,550.83

    GILLIBRAND, KIRSTEN
    $12,601,580.23

    O'ROURKE, BETO $9,373,261.40

    KLOBUCHAR, AMY J.
    $8,832,322.42

    BOOKER, CORY A.
    $7,923,204.28

    BUTTIGIEG, PETE
    $7,091,224.39

  3. I would highly recommend listening to Fivethirtyeight's interview with Eric Swalwell. It's actually fairly interesting.

  4. Have always said Bernie is the favourite and I still stick to that. Harris is the only other one with a chance but I think she'll be unable to effectively attack Bernie

  5. I'm fairly confident that Bernie Sanders is going to be the nominee. It's gonna be a tougher race than I initially thought, but he'll pull this off 👍🏻

  6. Eric Swalwell just did a post-mortem podcast with 538 and I'd actually recommend listening to it, because it shows just how delusional he was.

  7. I’ll miss Swalwell. Hopefully one day, maybe someone, some time, will pass him his torch…..

  8. Rest in pepperoni linguini Eric Swalwell’s campaign. Most people probably didn’t even know he was running until he dropped out.

  9. Talk about the betting odds for each candidate, which candidates are qualified already to reach 2nd and 3rd debate, and internet presence (twitter followers, google searches, ect.)

  10. I’m more of a moderate but I feel like kamala and Buttigieg are nice, caring and bold there not so angry or bitter like Bernie. (That’s just my perception might be totally wrong)

  11. Now candidates are going to start going after Harris and Warren as well. I almost think that’s good for Bernie and Biden since all attacks aren’t just going their way anymore

  12. I’m surprised someone dropped out so soon after the first debate, but I still expect way too many candidates still around by the time of the Iowa caucus

  13. Here's why I don't agree with these polls. For a few reasons
    (1) They stay away from talking about who they sampling.
    (2) They use old methods that the younger voter doesn't matter in
    (3) I've meet no one or talk to no one who actually participated in one of these polls. 🤣
    (4) Bernie Sanders has over 2Mil contributors (which means votes) that's more than Biden, Harris, and Warren combined, but yet he's only polling at 15% 🤔 that math is highly funny.
    (LAST) the truth is we put so much weight behind these polls because we like drama. 500-2000 people is not enough then it's random people from anywhere. They said Democrats or leaning Democrats independents. How can they verify that. THEY CAN'T

  14. Honestly the best political commentary channel on YouTube. I'm always going through my notifications with the hope of new videos — keep up the great work. Their needs to be more informative channels like "Question Time".

  15. I like how you showed a picture of Andrew Yang while saying “facts and data”…. well done 👍🏾

  16. I'd like to point out that most of Buttigieig's losses probably came from the police shooting incident, as there were no polls between his reaction to the shooting and the debates. While the debate clearly did not make up for that loss, there is a good chance he actually gained a little from it, but he lost significantly from the shooting.

    Also, he lost 1.5 (now a little less), not 2

  17. I'm glad Gabbard is doing better, even if only by a little bit. She is the only candidate I would vote for. I'll probably drop a few dollars her way to help get her into the 3rd debates.

  18. Damn you really slam Pete. Every video it sounds like you’re pretty pessimistic towards his chances. I respect your opinion but it makes me sad because I really enjoy his campaign. Still great videos though

  19. Eric Swalwell: Pass the torch

    Biden: You're right I am kinda getting old and I felt it when you said I said pass the torch many years ago. Please people of America Vote for Eric not me he is younger than me. Today I pass the torch

    Eric wakes up from his dream.

  20. Now that swalwell is out, I guess I’ll just support whoever he winds up endorsing. Gone but not remembered.

  21. i like andrew yang and i don't like warren i don't know about her but i'm worried shes gonna be just like clinton

  22. as long as we get more nuclear plants and research as well as fighting climate change as much as possible i'm happy
    edit: and becoming more socialist with free money every month

  23. Thank you for producing these excellent, informative videos. They are much appreciated as they cut through all the BS on the corporate networks.

  24. Jo Biden and Kamala Harris represent the same uninspired, corporate, status quo centrism that lost in 2016 with Hillary.

  25. A well sourced article on why nobody should be voting for Biden, Harris, Beto, or Pete. https://medium.com/@westonpagano/a-guide-to-the-2020-democratic-candidates-you-should-not-vote-for-c1c6e4c9c26

  26. If Bernie was just willing to attack candidates like Kamala in the debates, then he could be at like at least 20% right now in the polls. Hopefully he will learn to do that during the second debate so Kamala goes down to 7-8%.

  27. I thought that the RINOS Ryan/Mitt For Brains Romney….were going to primary T….what happened….Did T threaten to run as an independent in 2020 if they pulled that Shiite….That Shut the Neocon/Rinos the fuk up quicker'n rabbits have foreplay.

  28. I first learned that Gravel was running in your video from March 30th. We made it to the 65k threshold for the debates. 🕊

  29. It's not a compelling argument to just keep saying pass the torch without actually explaining what you're going to do and that's why swalwell did so poorly. Even Bernie Sanders lashed back at him saying that you have to take down Wall Street and that you have to have real solutions.

  30. How has Harris gained so many followers? Especially with her hypocrisy, as she laments oppression on stage, she supports slave labor bills in office. Deciding to keep some nonviolent offenders imprisoned so that they can provide cheap labor, with many only earning a few cents for each hour of often punishing harsh labor. Including but not limited to fire fighting.

  31. It’s like watching Game of Thrones watching the democrats interact with each other lol some serious shade and personal attacks

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