Hickey: The VIX is just reflecting the overall calmness of the market in recent weeks



you can't ignore it it's certainly that's but the Middle East has always been a hot spot that people have been worried about and factoring into their estimates so I don't think it's necessarily a major thing to rein in risk you were talking about May 12th was the last attacks or supported attacks and oils down 20% since then so you just have to take it into account see if do we see another round of maybe attacks in a in a couple of weeks and then then it becomes a trend but it's just – how about this protests in Hong Kong yesterday and today now this attacks a month ago the Vixen 15 yeah I mean does that make sense to you I I think you just have to look at the overall market and the VIX is just a reflection of what the markets been doing and the market has been relatively calm here we had a sell-off and we've rebounded very strongly so I think you just have to look at the whole broad market impact a broad market landscape and it's certainly a very confusing time for investors here because we have you know the Fed and trade which I think are two issues obviously that are much more front and center than what's going on the Middle East right now I love you guys do you know you do this as your name Lucy – thank you it's love bespoke obvious you guys do customized research and put out these cool things and one of the things you posted last night was dividend yields we talked about how when bond yields come down and dividend yields or whatever people might migrate to stocks do they think wow I'd rather get the capital appreciation if the dividend yields gonna be about the same it's the market but what what I didn't realize until you posted it last night is the United States is dividend yield is actually pretty meager 1.98 percent second lowest in the world behind India why do you think there's still so much interest in US stocks well you mean dividend yields are one thing and what you have to take into account is the tax treatment of dividends so that's one reason you have the yield so low and if you add in buybacks and we tax them less we'll give it and we as investor dividends used to be treated much more most much better for an investor to have a company buy back stock because you don't you don't take the tax hit than it is for a dividend and so you dividend yet in the buyback yield and you're you know closer to 4% so what you're looking at is and you have to compare it to the like you said interest rates or the ten years yielding about two percent so when you have a pretty similar yield dividends and the ten year for the u.s. at least over the past you know decade or more it's been a generally a good time for us equity yeah put that chart back up because all the way at the left side of the screen is Germany three point three percent dividend yield were at one point nine eight by the way the German market very quietly is up fourteen percent this year are there better opportunities outside of America then inside of America so i we think US equities are still attractive but you're right there are other areas of the world that are attractive I think emerging markets is an asset class that has just been left for dead it's been you know on a relative basis that's back to where we were over twenty years ago versus the US so you see no out performance on that so I think investors could look overseas if we dollars been very strong if we start to see the dollar weakened here that's the only gonna be good for emerging market I think it quickly do you think it will weaken will what a dollar I think we starting to see we've seen some very big strength but if we start to see easy non trade that's going to be negative for the dollar you you

Author Since: Mar 11, 2019

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